Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x890e26b77b86883efd4294a310c8bca3e0e1e2ee918bdcd81356326dc946c28d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 537.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 12c | 475.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 10c | 432.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 363.52$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 327$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 279.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 219.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 216.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked No | 62c | 177.43$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 9c | 166.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 31c | 162.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 159$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 158.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 126.85$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 9c | 123.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 14c | 110.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 109.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 109$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 15c | 97.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…3289backed Yes | 14c | 89.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b68…41b6backed Yes | 17c | 83.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 71c | 70.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 31c | 69.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 41c | 68.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 75c | 66.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 51.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0390…da52backed Yes | 61c | 50.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 46.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 46.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked No | 72c | 45.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 44.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 76c | 42.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 27c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 48c | 26.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 49c | 21.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.