Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18885f8317760d9b5e25c4faf1c3ea4204894d7bcb417f62686900a7f176aa31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 5c | 437.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 20c | 377.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 363.39$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 291.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 32c | 235.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 73c | 206.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 51c | 184.14$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0390…da52backed Yes | 42c | 174.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 52c | 160.84$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 23c | 149.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 142$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 33c | 126.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 16c | 109.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 109$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 56c | 102.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 78c | 97.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 48c | 95.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 86.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…3289backed Yes | 50c | 83.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 80.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 49c | 72.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 21c | 70.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 34c | 70.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked No | 68c | 56.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 39c | 54.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 80c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 52.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 53c | 49.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 27c | 48.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 47.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 46.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 33c | 44.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 26c | 44.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 60c | 41.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 43c | 41.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…2cb1backed No | 30c | 39.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 31cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 58c | 39.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 40c | 39.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 30c | 38.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 34c | 38.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 79c | 38.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 36.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 61c | 32.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 66c | 32.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 31.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 63c | 31.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 61c | 31.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 54c | 31.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 54c | 28.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 71c | 27.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…0dacbacked Yes | 44c | 27.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 48c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 61c | 22.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 20.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb838…f5d1backed Yes | 79c | 20.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 75c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 16.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 15.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.