Asian League · resolved market
Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb836dfd08e1daf33c46b24f119e53e028a99df8976ded168c3133f00809cd107
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 28c | 1,610$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.2 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 1,400$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.27 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 72c | 1,040$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.99 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 22c | 888$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.64 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 72c | 532.88$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.67 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 21c | 467.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.19 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…9c7bbacked Under | 58c | 398.82$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.43 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 26c | 378.48$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.11 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 70c | 284.97$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.49 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 36c | 267.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.32 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…e03cbacked Over | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 53c | 151.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 22c | 144.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.7 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 57c | 136.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 32c | 101.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 67c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 120 | 74.2%89 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 81.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 77c | 74.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051e…c25abacked Over | 34c | 56.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +196.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 50c | 50.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Over | 55c | 36.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 69c | 23.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 107 | 73.8%79 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7518…eabebacked Under | 69c | 18.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 3.5this page
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Tōkyō: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)FC Tōkyō won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.