Asian League · resolved market
Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59d3152b87d39c29c800249638a13ccd41a5844075a51be2a36a052e41a7d415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x115f…e217backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 1,945$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.11 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 1,089$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.69 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.83 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 52c | 904.3$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.23 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Under | 59c | 683.16$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 59c | 671.53$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.49 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x650e…6d89backed Over | 72c | 611.18$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 49c | 608.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.24 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 67c | 508.54$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.54 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 39c | 385$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 34c | 303.78$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 54c | 301.85$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 30c | 299.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.07 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 6c | 215.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…e03cbacked Over | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 45c | 198.51$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.51 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 44c | 182.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 41c | 172.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Over | 48c | 166.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 45c | 155.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 69c | 145$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 120 | 74.2%89 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 48c | 120.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 120.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…68a0backed Over | 49c | 100.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 48c | 64.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e6…f081backed Under | 53c | 58.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 405 | 50.6%205 W · 200 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 46c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 48c | 41.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 53c | 37.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…dcf5backed Over | 64c | 34.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 51c | 32.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 54c | 32.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…1b67backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Under | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…daabbacked Over | 61c | 24.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 2.5this page
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Tōkyō: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)FC Tōkyō won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.