Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb844010a73861abc0108246b64edc2ba0bdf55af6eb9e24b655048fb1834ac30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,982$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,032$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 1c | 968.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 781.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 56c | 750.52$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 5c | 670.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 501.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 4c | 335.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 44c | 292.92$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.15 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 254.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 43c | 227.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.07 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 80c | 203.79$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 37c | 177.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.54 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 48c | 145.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 36c | 140.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.58 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 79c | 126.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…d541backed Yes | 57c | 120$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 113.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe713…c9a0backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 44c | 96.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 94.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 52c | 92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 43c | 83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 74.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 60c | 68.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 35c | 68.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 51c | 62.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 47c | 57.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 20c | 57.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 28c | 45.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 33c | 43.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 79c | 42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 39c | 40.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 40.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 33c | 39.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4466…446ebacked No | 78c | 34.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 61c | 33.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 75c | 32.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 45c | 27.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 45c | 26.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 72c | 26.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…0200backed No | 78c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.