Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 2750 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb84edb6d88978bcdb7cbb05b727d3645e0e70191552895170ba9700ffb12a6e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed No | 61c | 1,148$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…444cbacked Yes | 54c | 508$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.62 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 17c | 301.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 289$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…c280backed No | 28c | 143.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 76c | 115.96$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 99.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa9da…aa1cbacked Yes | 71c | 93.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed Yes | 56c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 48c | 49.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe861…461ebacked No | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489a…fff2backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdad…3ef7backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 2750 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 2500 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2550 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2600 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2650 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2700 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.