Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8a02afe05b721bbfbfc12b4a581334f9ebd04c62d69bf215ebfc413b63baaa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 0c | 4,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 677.25$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.67 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 55c | 428.57$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 54c | 323.2$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.26 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 251.51$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.41 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 24c | 208.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 52c | 191.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 182.06$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 59c | 180.53$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 74c | 173.68$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 56c | 171.6$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 38c | 169.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed Yes | 65c | 162.79$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 78c | 112.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked No | 34c | 105.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 99.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 62c | 94.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 48c | 94.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 46c | 84.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 33c | 79.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 79.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 61c | 77.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 52c | 77.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 80c | 73.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…26b7backed No | 37c | 72.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 23c | 70.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 60c | 65.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed Yes | 36c | 63.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 55c | 63.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 41c | 57.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 53c | 56.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 49c | 54.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 54c | 53.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 24c | 52.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 44c | 52.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 45c | 51.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x073d…b94bbacked Yes | 45c | 47.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 40c | 47.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 44.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed Yes | 45c | 44.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…aef2backed Yes | 67c | 43.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 46c | 41.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 55c | 40.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…8014backed Yes | 46c | 39.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 49c | 39.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3811…340abacked No | 46c | 38.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 46c | 38.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed Yes | 35c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 66c | 37.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 36.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 41c | 34.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked No | 46c | 32.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 54c | 31.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…4990backed No | 49c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 55c | 29.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 53c | 27.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 24.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…99d6backed No | 56c | 23.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 50c | 22.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfef…5837backed No | 62c | 21.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -4.0wins | -0.45per pick | 67cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 62c | 20.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 54c | 20.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…636bbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…5b1cbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked Yes | 57c | 18.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.