Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Sijia Wei vs Elvina Kalieva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8a7da76595a2d80d0b46f85033a2709f87d40cc5b3a3a92d0e9d053d10c04ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kalievaof Wei, Kalieva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Wei | 0c | 7,342$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Kalieva | 60c | 2,000$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.12 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wei | 39c | 1,196$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.19 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Wei | 49c | 500$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.22 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Wei | 46c | 453.13$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.13 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wei | 57c | 451.7$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.1 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Kalieva | 61c | 198.74$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…5d79backed Kalieva | 32c | 179.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Wei | 15c | 132$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e7…3182backed Kalieva | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Wei | 13c | 118.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wei | 53c | 117.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Wei | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Wei | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…8323backed Wei | 76c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Wei | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 174 | 36.8%64 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Kalieva | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Wei | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Wei | 55c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…fba6backed Kalieva | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b00…cfbdbacked Wei | 35c | 55.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Wei | 34c | 50.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…1068backed Wei | 48c | 45.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…1d2cbacked Kalieva | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Kalieva | 45c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f04…ecb3backed Wei | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wei | 66c | 28.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed Wei | 68c | 28.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Sijia Wei vs Elvina Kalievathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Wei vs KalievaWei won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.