Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8b20326fd85ed96baa04ec3557d578f318c149e5e6ddea4b9fab4e6c8ef6bb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,571 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 12c | 747.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 4c | 589.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 75c | 309.58$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 24c | 280.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.68 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 201.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.92 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 199.21$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 184.26$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 26c | 165$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.45 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 159.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…63b0backed Yes | 56c | 153.07$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 145.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 31c | 142.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 37c | 135$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 30c | 128.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.88 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 79c | 127.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…ea18backed Yes | 66c | 116.43$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 105.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 42c | 105$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 100.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 26c | 87.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 87.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 80.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 15c | 79.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 42c | 70.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 29c | 65.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 51c | 62.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 31c | 57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 44c | 56.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked No | 54c | 55.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 58c | 54.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 22c | 51.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 42c | 47.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 50c | 40.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1f…96a8backed No | 54c | 39.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 63c | 39.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 31c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 36.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 73c | 34.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 33.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 74c | 31.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 48c | 29.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 29.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 28.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…c0e7backed Yes | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 76c | 24.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…5219backed Yes | 54c | 23.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 23.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 60c | 22.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 52c | 19.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 18.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397b…5024backed No | 71c | 15.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 70c | 14.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 76c | 13.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.