Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Victoria Mboko vs Emerson Jones
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8c319958a6733aab88841aff8a30f09315b89b3ccaed8ddbcceb353064ab9e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mbokoof Mboko, Jones
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jones | 24c | 1,280$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.64 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Jones | 12c | 628.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Mboko | 76c | 628$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.82 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…db14backed Mboko | 79c | 581$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.24 | 188 | 63.8%120 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Jones | 29c | 562.51$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Jones | 19c | 526$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mboko | 79c | 379$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Mboko | 78c | 364.41$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Jones | 25c | 355$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.22 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jones | 21c | 267.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Mboko | 79c | 267$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Mboko | 77c | 216$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Jones | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Mboko | 73c | 194.5$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee7…fdf6backed Jones | 22c | 184.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…a5cebacked Mboko | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 75cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Jones | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3f…994fbacked Mboko | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f07…9d0fbacked Mboko | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 706 | 52.7%372 W · 334 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked Jones | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mboko | 67c | 64.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Mboko | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Mboko | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Mboko | 80c | 61.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 128 | 46.9%60 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Jones | 21c | 58.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17bf…5a53backed Jones | 27c | 55.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…db0ebacked Mboko | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7058…26b2backed Mboko | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Jones | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Jones | 24c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Mboko | 73c | 33.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed Mboko | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Mboko | 78c | 27.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c6…1cc9backed Mboko | 80c | 22.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…3f2dbacked Mboko | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf8…777dbacked Mboko | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6097…66b2backed Mboko | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e4…98f5backed Mboko | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 70 | 74.3%52 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Victoria Mboko vs Emerson Jonesthis page
- Set Handicap: Mboko (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5)Mboko won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.