Stocks · resolved market
Will Chamath launch a SPAC in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8c66cda37ce674069e63f2f41cf2e4d9ee7495abd74a35219fb3a5724c29cef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 61c | 1,025$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 79c | 444.94$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…8b82backed Yes | 42c | 351.33$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…a67abacked No | 37c | 296.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 31c | 278.36$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 47c | 277.94$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 56c | 243.07$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 51c | 155.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf812…494bbacked No | 63c | 125$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 25c | 112.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 19c | 102.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5293…4b34backed No | 57c | 99.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…a244backed Yes | 52c | 68.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 66c | 56.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…d308backed No | 72c | 52.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1627…5618backed Yes | 43c | 51.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 30c | 51.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…f3b5backed Yes | 53c | 37.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 38c | 37.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…77cbbacked Yes | 57c | 29.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…9a90backed No | 79c | 27.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 56c | 22.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.