TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,611
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,611

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,611 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x807f…9615backed Over43c752.35$324 inWon+$428.849747.4%46 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a63…5dcebacked Under57c696.54$400 inLost-$4004850%24 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cbc…1d39backed Under57c442.43$250 inLost-$25017841.6%74 W · 104 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over42c413.91$175 inWon+$239.3629133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Over44c240$106 inWon+$134.44461.4%27 W · 17 L+6.3wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9deb…536fbacked Under57c204.39$117 inLost-$116.52157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+35.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbedb…6bc3backed Under57c204.39$116 inLost-$116.51540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Over43c141.49$61 inWon+$80.411127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.