UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29522f36fa14b30a5db60cb7a8a9b08515708cf43ee66e26dfbd9a402f6a8747
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bfe…2d74backed No | 65c | 5,566$3,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,640.84 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 34c | 5,459$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,575.54 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 37c | 1,653$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.23 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…cd56backed Yes | 57c | 1,435$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.56 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 59c | 992.29$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.05 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…5a97backed No | 63c | 929.63$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.64 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Yes | 40c | 807.94$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.6 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 35c | 549.82$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.38 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked No | 66c | 540.49$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.91 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked No | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked No | 65c | 458.01$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.71 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed No | 65c | 458$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…c8c1backed No | 65c | 400.98$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.43 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 56c | 400.21$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.12 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed No | 66c | 303.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef4f…4598backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…c606backed No | 55c | 282.55$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe663…e9f8backed No | 57c | 280.67$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Yes | 36c | 247.65$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.51 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Yes | 33c | 231.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.47 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Yes | 34c | 193.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…5333backed Yes | 41c | 156.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9220…0fcbbacked Yes | 50c | 140.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 33c | 72.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 65c | 47.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49cc…26f3backed No | 62c | 44.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a55…9aabbacked No | 69c | 43.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed Yes | 36c | 40.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…59e2backed Yes | 41c | 39.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 39cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed Yes | 41c | 37.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 41cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29f4…1ac8backed Yes | 40c | 37.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Yes | 41c | 36.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc479…f56fbacked Yes | 51c | 33.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x801f…3c62backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed No | 51c | 29.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 75c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Yes | 40c | 28.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 50c | 24.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed No | 67c | 15.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 69cpaid | -75%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x183b…b6e9backed No | 67c | 14.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino (Heavyweight, Main Card)Vitor Petrino won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.