Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Colorado State Rams (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8f38ebf5a4f8da63337f00f9233f3c9d2fba46cf2ea349c051cf83191278e23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fresno State Bulldogsof Colorado State Rams, Fresno State Bulldogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,980 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Colorado State Rams | 56c | 1,770$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.38 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 44c | 1,624$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.34 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 60c | 431.1$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.31 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Colorado State Rams | 44c | 374.24$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.15 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Colorado State Rams | 37c | 146.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 50c | 142.43$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 61c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 61c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Colorado State Rams | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 50c | 49.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 63c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 62 | 72.6%45 W · 17 L | +10.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 47c | 42.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Colorado State Rams | 46c | 39.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Colorado State Rams | 36c | 33.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…988dbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 75c | 26.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colorado State Rams (-6.5)this page
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Colorado State RamsColorado State Rams won
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Colorado State Rams: O/U 144.5Under won
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Colorado State Rams: O/U 145.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado State Rams (-7.5)Fresno State Bulldogs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.