Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Molcan (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb933fae6c0a2e83c798a9c38665bdef04f8bf922434904b41e69eb1f7ae31cea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Molcanof Fokina, Molcan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4b1…d21fbacked Fokina | 36c | 1,377$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.87 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Molcan | 60c | 752.69$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.82 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Molcan | 67c | 681.14$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.89 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…a7ecbacked Fokina | 39c | 666$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fokina | 37c | 642.86$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.86 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00c…dfa2backed Molcan | 61c | 491.93$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.93 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Fokina | 39c | 479.35$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.95 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Molcan | 59c | 453$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.81 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…3e2abacked Fokina | 41c | 219.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Molcan | 59c | 205.53$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.53 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Molcan | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Molcan | 75c | 131.73$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Molcan | 59c | 105.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Molcan | 59c | 101.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Molcan | 58c | 89.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Fokina | 52c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Fokina | 37c | 66.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7c…34c9backed Molcan | 63c | 66.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Molcan | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Molcan | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Molcan | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c6…bf45backed Molcan | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Molcan | 61c | 23.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Molcan (+1.5)this page
- Alex Molcan vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaAlex Molcan won
- Molcan vs. Fokina: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Molcan vs FokinaFokina won
- Set 2 Winner: Molcan vs FokinaMolcan won
- Set Handicap: Molcan (-1.5) vs Fokina (+1.5)Fokina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.