Asian League · resolved market
Will Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb941d93e57eabd9775d81cd3914a29e1e4596b4b2911ddb2ca767b0169a04244
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 26c | 5,336$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.26 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 75c | 2,783$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.65 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 78c | 2,722$2,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.41 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…dedebacked Yes | 12c | 2,508$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 2,341$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.28 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 8c | 1,291$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 285 | 32.3%92 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 394.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 74c | 360$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 74c | 204.8$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 74c | 176$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c9…e4b3backed Yes | 11c | 141.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 139.21$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 74c | 123.67$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c04…a5c1backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…5294backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 72cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 41.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 74c | 24.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 74c | 18.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 165 | 61.2%101 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked No | 75c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 74c | 14.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked No | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-05?Yes won
- Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.