UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9567f261bafff9b1d6e9a2e7c31137607c1b44822802dd4e5375225de5dc987
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Under | 43c | 6,050$2,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,448.7 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 57c | 6,040$3,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,441.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 56c | 2,020$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.52 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 31c | 592.75$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab6…398dbacked Under | 43c | 577.74$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Over | 69c | 563.77$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 44c | 489$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.84 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Over | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Under | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Under | 43c | 118.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0267backed Under | 41c | 116.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…af29backed Under | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Over | 57c | 51.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…f6d3backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 58c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over | 59c | 31.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5178…db57backed Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Under | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Under | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6896…c672backed Over | 59c | 17.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Francis Marshall vs. Erik Silva (Featherweight, Prelims)Marshall won
- Will Francis Marshall win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.