UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Francis Marshall vs. Erik Silva (Featherweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15f60be752d79538a88852850e74b8ea51a6ec04c5e12c50c42a0578ce73d831
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marshallof Marshall, Silva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Silva | 13c | 80,000$10,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,399.99 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0267backed Silva | 17c | 7,706$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.88 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Silva | 15c | 2,481$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.83 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Silva | 13c | 1,796$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.57 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Silva | 13c | 1,744$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.3 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Silva | 12c | 1,736$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.35 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Silva | 13c | 1,511$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.38 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Silva | 13c | 1,191$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.83 | 281 | 43.1%121 W · 160 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Silva | 16c | 1,124$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Silva | 12c | 997.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Silva | 16c | 573.54$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.91 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Silva | 15c | 480$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…d417backed Silva | 14c | 407.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Silva | 12c | 394.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Silva | 15c | 330.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…a9b1backed Silva | 16c | 239.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 162 | 58.6%95 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Silva | 6c | 226.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…ff9cbacked Silva | 15c | 226.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…f6d3backed Silva | 14c | 210.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Silva | 12c | 207$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Silva | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Silva | 13c | 199.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Marshall | 80c | 175.19$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…0c27backed Marshall | 79c | 156.92$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Silva | 16c | 149.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Silva | 14c | 148$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Silva | 12c | 145$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Silva | 14c | 143.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1661…ca95backed Silva | 14c | 143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Silva | 14c | 132$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Silva | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…211ebacked Silva | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0768…f8cabacked Silva | 16c | 119.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…3d9dbacked Silva | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Silva | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6d…237dbacked Silva | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Silva | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Silva | 14c | 88.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08db…cf71backed Marshall | 74c | 74.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Silva | 16c | 72.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa4…71c5backed Silva | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…7a4abacked Silva | 23c | 66.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…cb90backed Silva | 22c | 54.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Silva | 29c | 34.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Francis Marshall vs. Erik Silva (Featherweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Francis Marshall win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.