Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb965aea072e2cd1335a24b36edec96634f1fb5fa8c9839d3889cb07a3bde87f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9da0…523cbacked Yes | 76c | 5,016$3,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,812.06 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…33a1backed No | 74c | 1,951$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,520$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.43 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 30c | 896.95$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.72 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…1615backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d70…5c7bbacked Yes | 37c | 354.05$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…a200backed Yes | 40c | 351.61$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 8c | 243.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 25c | 241$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.18 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…6851backed No | 56c | 217.74$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 848 | 46%390 W · 458 L | +51.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…22a1backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…d73abacked No | 67c | 79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +215.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed No | 63c | 58.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Yes | 70c | 51.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf60e…936dbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…8c29backed Yes | 38c | 35.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 16.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.