MLB · resolved market
MacKenzie Gore: Strikeouts O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb96b342bd943b2470c98edb878535c484b04f7f19710a550ca59d92a4240fc0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 47c | 820.24$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.73 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 640$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.2 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 47c | 212.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.61 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 53c | 209.4$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.91 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6974…11b4backed Over | 53c | 209.25$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.9 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Over | 52c | 199$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 114$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…e5fdbacked Under | 47c | 102$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 49c | 84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 48c | 75.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.