Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tearlaments vs Execration (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb971e46aed671e0a9deee9c2dd906dc431c8a618355ba71622ee46895fac0e06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Execrationof Tearlaments, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7600…4478backed Tearlaments | 48c | 12,059$5,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,806.69 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdb…4d30backed Execration | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Execration | 55c | 6,427$3,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,866.97 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Execration | 51c | 4,092$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,005.19 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed Tearlaments | 45c | 3,787$1,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,703.97 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…b2e0backed Tearlaments | 44c | 2,847$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.54 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Tearlaments | 46c | 2,543$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.47 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Tearlaments | 49c | 1,972$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tearlaments | 28c | 1,899$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.89 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Tearlaments | 16c | 1,800$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Execration | 56c | 1,679$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.97 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Execration | 56c | 1,500$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tearlaments | 29c | 1,139$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.95 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed Execration | 60c | 1,012$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.48 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Execration | 60c | 1,003$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.2 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…abc9backed Execration | 53c | 952.83$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.83 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Execration | 54c | 927.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.29 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Tearlaments | 40c | 800$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 50 | 78%39 W · 11 L | +7.4wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Tearlaments | 40c | 699.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Execration | 55c | 599.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…1494backed Tearlaments | 8c | 502.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Tearlaments | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.43 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Tearlaments | 40c | 499.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…41d5backed Tearlaments | 44c | 499.93$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.46 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7815…ade8backed Tearlaments | 18c | 494.6$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb787…ad0abacked Execration | 56c | 413.74$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.38 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Tearlaments | 23c | 400$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…2eb8backed Execration | 78c | 382.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.77 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Execration | 57c | 373.19$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.47 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +36%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Tearlaments | 35c | 363.49$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.23 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -14.1wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd2…a1fdbacked Tearlaments | 45c | 331.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Execration | 75c | 306.11$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Execration | 53c | 289$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.83 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…8989backed Tearlaments | 43c | 234.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ce…1817backed Tearlaments | 47c | 228.84$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…1d61backed Tearlaments | 44c | 228.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Tearlaments | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…2d9fbacked Execration | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Tearlaments | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7f…7d7fbacked Execration | 55c | 181.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed Execration | 56c | 178.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Tearlaments | 43c | 174.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Execration | 60c | 150.94$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63e1…802abacked Tearlaments | 18c | 139.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…a367backed Tearlaments | 42c | 122$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…6960backed Execration | 58c | 110.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Tearlaments | 23c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c2…1c20backed Tearlaments | 49c | 102.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x159b…6cddbacked Tearlaments | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…cc07backed Execration | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…681dbacked Execration | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bb…c8acbacked Tearlaments | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Tearlaments | 40c | 99.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tearlaments | 31c | 99.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…67c5backed Tearlaments | 34c | 97.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Tearlaments | 49c | 95.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa49…6330backed Tearlaments | 19c | 95.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe816…74c5backed Execration | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Tearlaments | 34c | 88.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Execration | 60c | 88.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c20…e02dbacked Tearlaments | 27c | 84.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed Tearlaments | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Execration | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Tearlaments | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…41f9backed Execration | 52c | 57.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Execration | 57c | 55.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3e73backed Execration | 55c | 54.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Tearlaments | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…5845backed Execration | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Tearlaments | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59b…916bbacked Tearlaments | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Tearlaments | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…d044backed Execration | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Execration | 52c | 38.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Execration | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…8086backed Tearlaments | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…7e2ebacked Execration | 59c | 29.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ea…ae3fbacked Execration | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…50d3backed Execration | 77c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 78cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe507…7abdbacked Execration | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.