Token Launches · resolved market
Will gainzy shave his shoulders by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb98e5032ae00845dbd89bc2e4d41d922dcdd72ee2237860f8d9786bc7724264f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 71c | 311.05$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe27…b4ccbacked Yes | 31c | 169.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3579…b7e8backed Yes | 45c | 160.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked Yes | 35c | 141.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…003fbacked Yes | 25c | 124.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6133…776abacked Yes | 48c | 124.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 55c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -15.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ff…524abacked No | 30c | 67.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +238.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 36c | 67.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 38c | 41.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9944…b035backed No | 80c | 24.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 68c | 20.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 63c | 20.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.