Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Louisville Cardinals vs. Indiana Hoosiers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9b759887f2ca91cae655744d0a91905a759c978ff715f245eecabe2ece736e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisville Cardinalsof Louisville Cardinals, Indiana Hoosiers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Louisville Cardinals | 74c | 6,700$4,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.67 | 116 | 62.1%72 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Indiana Hoosiers | 26c | 3,300$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Hoosiers | 12c | 2,411$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.35 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Louisville Cardinals | 67c | 2,349$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.66 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Indiana Hoosiers | 38c | 1,732$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.62 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 8c | 546.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 231 | 58.9%136 W · 95 L | +23.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 25c | 514.78$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 38c | 503.76$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.81 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Indiana Hoosiers | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 16c | 413.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 140 | 21.4%30 W · 110 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Indiana Hoosiers | 9c | 310$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Louisville Cardinals | 68c | 267$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Indiana Hoosiers | 9c | 264.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Louisville Cardinals | 60c | 203.25$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.63 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Indiana Hoosiers | 39c | 139$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…9d80backed Indiana Hoosiers | 40c | 136.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 18c | 135.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Indiana Hoosiers | 12c | 116.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Indiana Hoosiers | 24c | 107.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 26c | 100.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Indiana Hoosiers | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 349 | 47.9%167 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…5e4dbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 39c | 88.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Indiana Hoosiers | 38c | 86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Louisville Cardinals | 61c | 72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7f…d5bdbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 35c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Louisville Cardinals | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Louisville Cardinals | 62c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Louisville Cardinals | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Indiana Hoosiersthis page
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Indiana Hoosiers: O/U 159.5Over won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Indiana Hoosiers: O/U 161.5Over won
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-4.5)Louisville Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.