MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9e07dbe22cdcd6e02488606b671f3d61ebf3fa84653ba9747ee6125b504aea3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c02…502bbacked Over | 0c | 13,775$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Over | 14c | 3,325$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 58c | 1,277$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.34 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 42c | 1,233$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.68 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…7da3backed Under | 79c | 910.1$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.36 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +5.9wins | +0.35per pick | 59cpaid | +80%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Over | 47c | 204.72$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 33c | 131.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.37 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Under | 54c | 129.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 45c | 97.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 69c | 76.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 61c | 57.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Under | 58c | 53.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 44c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 39c | 45.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…53fabacked Under | 75c | 38.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 38c | 32.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…880abacked Under | 62c | 31.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 71c | 27.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 60c | 26.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…180bbacked Over | 40c | 25.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City RoyalsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.