MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd713093127b2455717aea0d0a187d5e997a9fb09a40a5fa7e6f057529f8b36c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c02…502bbacked Over | 0c | 38,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Over | 48c | 4,132$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,983.55 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Over | 13c | 3,743$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 51c | 3,205$1,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.41 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 52c | 2,977$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.1 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 49c | 2,222$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.78 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 1,305$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.57 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 57c | 1,202$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.39 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96a…396abacked Over | 67c | 1,095$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.85 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +354.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Over | 49c | 988.82$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.45 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 48c | 981$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.12 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 53c | 939.73$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.06 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 921.3$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.08 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 820.03$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.79 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 45c | 735.01$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.96 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 23c | 411.16$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 45c | 385.61$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.95 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1e…1719backed Over | 13c | 364.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 52c | 323.84$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.44 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Under | 50c | 322.55$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.28 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 56c | 312.94$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.25 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Over | 34c | 286.42$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.01 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Under | 53c | 204.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 133 | 61.7%82 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 52c | 188.71$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.58 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 45c | 170.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Under | 53c | 157.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.21 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 156.39$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.76 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…4bbfbacked Under | 50c | 146.07$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 63c | 142.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 110.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Under | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 58c | 97.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 49c | 96.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 54c | 90.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Over | 64c | 84.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 59c | 72.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…0db6backed Under | 28c | 69.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…fed7backed Over | 75c | 65.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Under | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 52c | 57.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Under | 51c | 55.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 57c | 54.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Under | 51c | 52.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…08f3backed Under | 51c | 52.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 48c | 52.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 46c | 49.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 63c | 49.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 52c | 45.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 48c | 44.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Under | 50c | 42.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafcd…8014backed Under | 50c | 41.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Under | 53c | 40.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 73c | 39.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Over | 60c | 37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 50c | 35.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 71c | 34.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed Over | 74c | 33.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 48c | 33.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Under | 51c | 33.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under | 51c | 32.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 50c | 31.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac3…8fb0backed Under | 53c | 31.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ee…0ad8backed Under | 53c | 29.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bc…ea6abacked Under | 53c | 29.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…e9fabacked Under | 53c | 29.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…3be8backed Under | 49c | 28.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 41c | 27.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 56c | 27.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 48c | 26.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…7210backed Under | 49c | 24.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Under | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 162 | 56.2%91 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City RoyalsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.