Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9e6a354da106c5f83b9fd66e6ae588d03d9c248555f0eddd92d0f0f93681985
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e8b…11cabacked Under | 59c | 5,805$3,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 2,665$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.94 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd500…4568backed Under | 59c | 2,319$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…699bbacked Under | 58c | 999.97$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 41c | 704.35$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 47c | 490.28$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.43 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 41c | 472.76$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.96 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Over | 45c | 466.36$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.86 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…697abacked Under | 55c | 443.32$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 412.86$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.24 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 41c | 410.03$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.18 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 42c | 405.36$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.81 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 6c | 395.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 42c | 375$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 43c | 336.91$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.87 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 41c | 323.29$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 58c | 305.15$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 31c | 287.58$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 42c | 287.41$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.66 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Over | 42c | 287.26$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.65 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 41c | 270.85$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.12 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 41c | 248.65$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 41c | 248.65$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8626…0006backed Over | 35c | 236.13$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Over | 41c | 206.59$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +44%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 58c | 195.23$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 42c | 191.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Over | 41c | 189.93$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 41c | 181.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 41c | 168.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Over | 41c | 162.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 67c | 159.09$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…2e3abacked Over | 41c | 139.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 40c | 138.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Under | 67c | 131.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 59c | 126.16$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…e195backed Over | 40c | 120.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Over | 42c | 117.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Over | 42c | 103.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 41c | 89.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked Under | 46c | 84.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Over | 41c | 83.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 44c | 75.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 41c | 75.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Over | 43c | 71.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7f…657ebacked Over | 30c | 68.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 42c | 68.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6444…672ebacked Under | 58c | 61.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 42c | 60.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Under | 71c | 58.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Over | 42c | 57.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Over | 42c | 57.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 41c | 51.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…0b9cbacked Over | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 74c | 43.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 40c | 43.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 41c | 39.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 42c | 34.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 53c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Under | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2720…7549backed Under | 60c | 32.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 43c | 29.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f75…df7fbacked Under | 73c | 29.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 42c | 25.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 56c | 21.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Under | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.