Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff1f54209d86567a3bd12f21a012405706c08ab36c747a7c0bf5bf1f642ae2f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 37c | 1,298$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.12 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fa…f6dfbacked Over | 57c | 1,100$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 80c | 794.18$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.56 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 29c | 776.48$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.49 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked Under | 15c | 738.76$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.76 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Under | 35c | 719.94$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.98 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 668.13$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.5 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 66c | 667.91$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.09 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 569.39$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.91 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Under | 18c | 472.47$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +128%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…c230backed Under | 18c | 450$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 18c | 449.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed Under | 17c | 449.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 66c | 445.71$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.84 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 431.26$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.83 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 34c | 400.87$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.29 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 64c | 400$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7f…657ebacked Under | 25c | 327.19$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 61c | 320.2$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.88 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 67c | 284.92$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.02 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…f53abacked Over | 66c | 223.76$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 68c | 222.39$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 32c | 209.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +99%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 55c | 199.28$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.86 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 62c | 197.28$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 63c | 190.47$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Over | 65c | 188.27$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 62c | 177.49$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 65c | 150.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 65c | 150.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Under | 14c | 118.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Over | 69c | 115.4$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Under | 50c | 112.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 45c | 99.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Over | 55c | 83.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 63c | 77.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 24c | 72.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb38…f78dbacked Over | 63c | 71.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 71c | 66.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…c9eebacked Under | 44c | 60.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 57c | 58.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 21c | 53.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Over | 58c | 51.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…8320backed Over | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 51c | 39.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Over | 66c | 36.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…5cdbbacked Under | 37c | 36.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 65c | 33.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 63c | 32.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e4…4b21backed Over | 63c | 30.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf226…1d75backed Over | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c30…d9e5backed Over | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 36c | 28.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 76c | 28.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 41c | 26.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Over | 65c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Over | 66c | 19.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked Over | 66c | 19.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over | 75c | 15.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 65c | 15.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.