College Football · resolved market
Spread: Oregon (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9ee1d33b899f5ed231af62640343b60fbd9331d4b497672145287adb347947f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregonof Oregon, Rutgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Rutgers | 50c | 123,949$62,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62,096.25 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Oregon | 50c | 71,057$35,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,587.7 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Oregon | 49c | 23,708$11,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,091.08 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Oregon | 51c | 12,875$6,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,368.59 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Oregon | 50c | 12,601$6,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,289.36 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Oregon | 51c | 5,123$2,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,534.39 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oregon | 51c | 3,359$1,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.46 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…9ed3backed Rutgers | 52c | 2,878$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Rutgers | 48c | 1,445$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.39 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Oregon | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Rutgers | 51c | 800$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Oregon | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 148 | 36.5%54 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Rutgers | 50c | 495$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Oregon | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Rutgers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Oregon | 50c | 198.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.78 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Oregon | 52c | 192.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Oregon | 49c | 136.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Rutgers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4f…3d87backed Rutgers | 52c | 67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rutgers | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Rutgers | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…e7d8backed Rutgers | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…534cbacked Oregon | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Rutgers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Rutgers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Oregon | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Rutgers | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oregon (-17.5)this page
- O/U 59.5Over won
- Oregon vs. RutgersOregon won
- Oregon vs. Rutgers: O/U 60.5Over won
- Oregon vs. Rutgers: O/U 61.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.