Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Alverca vs. FC Famalicão end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba0adf17acc1035923226160d59fc9d60199a45a7c3a5980b690b4548485f831
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 26c | 2,049$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.68 | 5,655 | 42%2,376 W · 3,279 L | +75.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599e…29fbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 55c | 987.68$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.92 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 30c | 931.77$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.53 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 61c | 376.77$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.06 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 51c | 288.22$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.25 | 7,966 | 45.3%3,608 W · 4,358 L | +9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5baf…3904backed Yes | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 30c | 266.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Yes | 67c | 181.82$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.82 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +6.9wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 53c | 178.56$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 1,156 | 53%613 W · 543 L | +43.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 50c | 168.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 72c | 166.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Yes | 29c | 114$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 270 | 50%135 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 43c | 69.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 46c | 65.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 143 | 62.9%90 W · 53 L | +15.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +20%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…bd3cbacked Yes | 74c | 59.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7349…8a6dbacked No | 71c | 56.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 52.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a6…4c33backed Yes | 69c | 50.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 178 | 50.6%90 W · 88 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Yes | 29c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 29c | 42.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,163 | 60.5%704 W · 459 L | +67.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…958ebacked No | 67c | 38.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed No | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 60c | 28.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed No | 72c | 28.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Yes | 68c | 28.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…27babacked No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6f…70edbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd7…6c52backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Alverca vs. FC Famalicão end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Alverca win on 2026-01-04?Yes won
- Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-01-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.