CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba18df23b9783032b99a6dbb874866ed7e3768ff44e809023b4ca938a70a3b23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof MOUZ, Aurora Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked MOUZ | 40c | 520.42$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.42 | 327 | 52.3%171 W · 156 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Aurora Gaming | 58c | 479.87$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.77 | 1,167 | 48.2%562 W · 605 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed MOUZ | 36c | 477.91$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.05 | 720 | 46.1%332 W · 388 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…9c6dbacked MOUZ | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213f…1da2backed Aurora Gaming | 60c | 466.67$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.67 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Aurora Gaming | 64c | 434.77$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.52 | 661 | 62.6%414 W · 247 L | +29.2wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Aurora Gaming | 58c | 376.19$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e3a6backed MOUZ | 39c | 152.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed MOUZ | 41c | 147.76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked MOUZ | 7c | 147$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed MOUZ | 43c | 134.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 287 | 40.8%117 W · 170 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc304…2c49backed Aurora Gaming | 61c | 126.43$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf9…d6f0backed MOUZ | 41c | 63.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8218…6ed2backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 36.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Aurora Gaming | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Aurora Gaming | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,146 | 49.4%566 W · 580 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac3…5572backed Aurora Gaming | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…c2babacked Aurora Gaming | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 473 | 46.5%220 W · 253 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group BAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.