CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Mousquetaires vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba22474ea170b20e325fa270f650316f34aa1880bc854971e561311659b1cad6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mousquetairesof Mousquetaires, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,465 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Ursa | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Mousquetaires | 26c | 1,765$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.88 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mousquetaires | 44c | 1,620$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.6 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Mousquetaires | 24c | 1,229$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.04 | 219 | 39.7%87 W · 132 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ursa | 69c | 882$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.81 | 2,456 | 44.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L | -67.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Ursa | 70c | 837.43$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.36 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Ursa | 8c | 271$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Mousquetaires | 37c | 249.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Ursa | 63c | 237.93$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ursa | 18c | 228$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Mousquetaires | 33c | 169.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.5 | 2,092 | 41.6%871 W · 1,221 L | -50.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Ursa | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 967 | 43.5%421 W · 546 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Ursa | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ursa | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 601 | 47.4%285 W · 316 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 57c | 119.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Mousquetaires | 21c | 80.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked Ursa | 50c | 39.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Ursa | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 459 | 56.9%261 W · 198 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Mousquetaires vs Ursa - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Mousquetaires vs Ursa (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 PlayoffsUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: Mousquetaires vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Mousquetaires (+1.5)Mousquetaires won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.