CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: B8 vs HOTU
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba3a79bc5561f1a13cdab29a639f23c15d8eeaccbeba4ef66949e91fd99d8bfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HOTUof B8, HOTU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked B8 | 56c | 2,250$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.5 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed B8 | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed B8 | 52c | 1,948$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.94 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked HOTU | 37c | 1,938$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.4 | 208 | 55.3%115 W · 93 L | +18.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd773…549ebacked HOTU | 54c | 1,841$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.39 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed HOTU | 40c | 1,500$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.92 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed HOTU | 45c | 750$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.5 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed B8 | 57c | 666$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.95 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked B8 | 61c | 665.98$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.25 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked HOTU | 49c | 661.97$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.97 | 244 | 40.6%99 W · 145 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed B8 | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked HOTU | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked B8 | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed HOTU | 35c | 393.39$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.97 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked HOTU | 36c | 323$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.72 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…a304backed B8 | 62c | 316$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.92 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…d974backed B8 | 16c | 281.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | -18.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked HOTU | 37c | 270.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.19 | 353 | 41.6%147 W · 206 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked HOTU | 34c | 161.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.61 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed B8 | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 374 | 48.4%181 W · 193 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…60e9backed HOTU | 36c | 155$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 550 | 43.1%237 W · 313 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked HOTU | 36c | 139.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed B8 | 61c | 112.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…9172backed HOTU | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked B8 | 52c | 96.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed B8 | 50c | 96.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked HOTU | 74c | 91.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed HOTU | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 613 | 38.2%234 W · 379 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked B8 | 57c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked HOTU | 42c | 63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed B8 | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 211 | 41.7%88 W · 123 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked HOTU | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked B8 | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed HOTU | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…3f0abacked B8 | 60c | 42.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed HOTU | 47c | 42.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…238bbacked B8 | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.