Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba4a9d321cf04710ce4770fdefaa2d282c39aacd2bb00408f5d9af541dd45e68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Over | 66c | 800$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 327 | 52.9%173 W · 154 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Under | 34c | 790$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.6 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Under | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 769 | 53.4%411 W · 358 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed Over | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 29c | 136.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Under | 28c | 129.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 1,035 | 47.2%489 W · 546 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Over | 71c | 112.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | -20.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 71c | 82.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 493 | 46.5%229 W · 264 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…89d0backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Under | 34c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 479 | 51.4%246 W · 233 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed Over | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +6.5wins | +0.46per pick | 47cpaid | +121.9%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 3.5this page
- First Blood in Game 5?Top Esports won
- Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5)Team WE won
- Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5)Team WE won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights RivalsTop Esports won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 WinnerTeam WE won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 WinnerTop Esports won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 WinnerTop Esports won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 4 WinnerTeam WE won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 3?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 5?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.