NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Kings: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba7cc03f9c7ba6b7abde3c8de322681f97e5eb6206732145c7c9c86531f01915
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,829 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 39c | 10,940$4,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,672.98 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 5,777$3,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,512.84 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 61c | 4,527$2,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,744.43 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 63c | 2,269$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.81 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 36c | 1,834$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.62 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 58c | 1,275$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.83 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 639.07$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.05 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Under | 59c | 593.22$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 6c | 555.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Over | 43c | 499.99$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 65c | 389.81$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.55 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 43c | 370.14$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.23 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 62c | 332.86$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.37 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 35c | 295.07$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…8850backed Under | 40c | 247.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 227.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.65 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Under | 61c | 219.85$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.94 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 41c | 171$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.89 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 62c | 151.25$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 69c | 148.77$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.11 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 40c | 116.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…1e38backed Under | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Under | 68c | 88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 65c | 79.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 15c | 79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Under | 20c | 73.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x838a…0815backed Under | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 65c | 53.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Under | 61c | 48.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 95 | 63.2%60 W · 35 L | +9.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 69c | 39.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 64c | 38.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5090…ccb2backed Under | 59c | 36.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -6.3wins | -0.35per pick | 63cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…676ebacked Over | 65c | 33.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Over | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +18.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Kings: O/U 6.5this page
- Flyers vs. KingsFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Kings: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Kings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Kings: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.