Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AZ win on 2025-11-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba86217916f147c77e959d45c5d0fb8df84a36318e3e13f3d215de065552566f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 69c | 40,000$27,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,400 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 31c | 22,507$6,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,977.17 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 31c | 7,916$2,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,443.22 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 31c | 5,000$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 24c | 2,736$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.95 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 38c | 2,195$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.68 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Yes | 69c | 1,021$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 38c | 608.22$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.14 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…a631backed Yes | 79c | 581.54$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.59 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 16c | 500.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 76c | 407.2$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 30c | 314.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 8c | 302.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7441…cb79backed No | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b4…1df1backed Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Yes | 80c | 288.75$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 35c | 269.45$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.07 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Yes | 70c | 193.14$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed No | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 72c | 115$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 17c | 110.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…c6b9backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 31c | 98.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 68c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked No | 17c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 34cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 34c | 64.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa126…5715backed Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6244…d154backed Yes | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a6…3b66backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…353dbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…319fbacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dff…2ce2backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AZ win on 2025-11-27?this page
- Will AZ vs. Shelbourne FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Shelbourne FC win on 2025-11-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.