UFC · resolved market
UFC 302: Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba8cc593ad7ae04e172ee0bd4b5f6a94a8b968afd4ff52e3a079e915ff65332c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brownof Brown, dos Santos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked dos Santos | 36c | 593.83$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.78 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Brown | 64c | 339.24$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.48 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Brown | 64c | 149.83$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5158…1fafbacked Brown | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x071f…881bbacked Brown | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Brown | 60c | 25.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…2256backed Brown | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 302: Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santosthis page
- UFC 302: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin PoirierMakhachev won
- UFC 302: Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr RomanovAlmeida won
- UFC 302: Kevin Holland vs. Michael OleksiejczukHolland won
- UFC 302: Sean Strickland vs. Paulo CostaStrickland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.