UFC · resolved market
UFC 302: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf34fcf553af63a7efe717e004c2b0e537e4c4e230d704530ebefcd6c13fe012d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Makhachevof Makhachev, Poirier
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Poirier | 10c | 1,924$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…031bbacked Poirier | 18c | 1,667$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…eaacbacked Poirier | 17c | 1,000$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114f…f117backed Poirier | 19c | 715.79$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9224…a1e2backed Poirier | 18c | 705.56$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39bb…30c5backed Poirier | 18c | 421.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Poirier | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked Poirier | 17c | 375.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a15…a8eebacked Poirier | 18c | 336.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Poirier | 17c | 329.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…8b7cbacked Poirier | 21c | 303$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed Poirier | 17c | 227.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…6c18backed Poirier | 18c | 223.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…7e92backed Poirier | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5119…02a0backed Poirier | 20c | 158.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9a…64b1backed Poirier | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…1612backed Poirier | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f91…dd16backed Poirier | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +65%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0e…3094backed Poirier | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4605…4debbacked Poirier | 17c | 82.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…1afcbacked Poirier | 17c | 59.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 302: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirierthis page
- UFC 302: Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr RomanovAlmeida won
- UFC 302: Kevin Holland vs. Michael OleksiejczukHolland won
- UFC 302: Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosBrown won
- UFC 302: Sean Strickland vs. Paulo CostaStrickland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.