UFC · resolved market
UFC 302: Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a63b56fa5e2076fe920e02685bd24c639cffbb24cfe49a62f126d2a46081da3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stricklandof Strickland, Costa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Strickland | 68c | 1,085$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…e838backed Strickland | 70c | 935.81$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Costa | 31c | 868.07$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.35 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33fe…c5e0backed Costa | 33c | 766.87$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed Costa | 31c | 594.29$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…f4aabacked Costa | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Strickland | 79c | 363.63$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.87 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Strickland | 69c | 273.75$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Costa | 29c | 184.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Strickland | 66c | 151.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Strickland | 69c | 139.97$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Strickland | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…538abacked Costa | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe79…c9eabacked Costa | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…6c18backed Strickland | 70c | 85.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0196…1dd6backed Costa | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…1612backed Costa | 50c | 60.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Costa | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c5…dfd9backed Strickland | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…4cb1backed Costa | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0e…3094backed Costa | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0846…5999backed Strickland | 70c | 19.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…38b6backed Strickland | 72c | 15.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 302: Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costathis page
- UFC 302: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin PoirierMakhachev won
- UFC 302: Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr RomanovAlmeida won
- UFC 302: Kevin Holland vs. Michael OleksiejczukHolland won
- UFC 302: Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosBrown won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.