Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba92e55e7da992d31247ea11002b0a88cfb6215381a47be9dbfcee27c73c6882
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 798.12$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 2c | 604.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 3c | 455.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 339.18$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 73c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 17c | 195$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 28c | 180.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 20c | 163.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ac…a769backed Yes | 28c | 162.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 28c | 137.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 26c | 110.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 24c | 76.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 18c | 75.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 71.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 28c | 67.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 60.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 56.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 48.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 37.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 36.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.