Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a90fd03e6b70389ba46046bcf906769b70fa7cabee9cb6290a30a291b915745
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 617.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 76c | 445.07$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.21 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 432.87$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.62 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 359.41$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 48c | 271.22$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 53c | 250.01$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.41 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 237.55$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 54c | 204.16$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.69 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 41c | 201.03$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 52c | 199.28$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.79 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 46c | 179.83$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 167$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 44c | 143.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 129.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 125.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 66c | 122.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 122$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 113$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 50c | 105.73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 43c | 104.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked Yes | 30c | 100.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 65c | 98.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 37c | 96.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 53c | 85.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 53c | 83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 45c | 82.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 43c | 81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 52c | 76.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 74.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 67.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1b4fbacked Yes | 30c | 66.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 66.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 66.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 75c | 64.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 64.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 48c | 59.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 53.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 75c | 52.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 52c | 52.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 41c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 49c | 50.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 50c | 50.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 49.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 46c | 48.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 46.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 53c | 45.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 49c | 43.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 52c | 43.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed Yes | 71c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 60c | 36.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 36.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 49c | 34.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 58c | 34.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 33.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 32.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2292…65a2backed Yes | 58c | 31.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 29.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 50c | 29.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 52c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 27.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 55c | 27.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 52c | 26.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 46c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 47c | 22.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…1780backed No | 69c | 17.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…9b18backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.