Mls · resolved market
San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbab956bf912b9e464a5861d4db8706c71cb26944e626ad85234ba33cbbc2a904
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87bb…a7ebbacked Under | 69c | 1,500$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 31c | 1,150$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.6 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 40c | 999.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 513.93$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.88 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 60c | 430.58$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.86 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 28c | 344.85$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.66 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 40c | 227.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.21 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 72c | 180$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 60c | 171.29$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.52 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Over | 32c | 144.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 41c | 121.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 41c | 114.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 72c | 67.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 31c | 61.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 31c | 60.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 31c | 60.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 31c | 60.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 68c | 45.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a03…279abacked Over | 30c | 39.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 60c | 24.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 53c | 22.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5this page
- San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.