Mls · resolved market
San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bc137bae836463eb1b187692cd270aaed99c2114a5134395795c1649ece0ac6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 41c | 2,388$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.67 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…5f81backed Over | 48c | 1,639$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 36c | 1,226$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Over | 66c | 1,121$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 26c | 962.99$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.11 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 20c | 893.53$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.39 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 65c | 839.05$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.6 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 785.51$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.51 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…cb68backed Over | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…3841backed Over | 51c | 499.98$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 24c | 487.68$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.95 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 77c | 411.25$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.14 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 55c | 254.66$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 232.94$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.16 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 34c | 204.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…4498backed Over | 52c | 199.93$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Under | 12c | 162.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…5a53backed Over | 60c | 152.91$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Under | 33c | 135.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 51c | 108.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb792…fa38backed Under | 48c | 101.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 65c | 86.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 42c | 79.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 52c | 74.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 41c | 58.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b5…f7ebbacked Over | 27c | 55.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +39%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 48c | 50.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 65c | 50.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 67c | 49.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 56c | 43.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Under | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 63c | 39.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 37c | 33.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…56e5backed Over | 74c | 26.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 70c | 24.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 74c | 14.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5this page
- San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Under won
- San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.