Mls · resolved market
San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaae01bb327c254871d15317b2d2c27780a5508c569431aba3c07fced111f352c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 35c | 3,048$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.63 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 2,179$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.31 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 60c | 1,071$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.91 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Over | 48c | 1,008$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.41 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Over | 48c | 843.97$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 48c | 807.33$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.52 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 55c | 685.61$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.53 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 20c | 639.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…9c7bbacked Under | 55c | 583.8$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.71 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.25per pick | 34cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 60c | 528.94$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.53 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 18c | 501$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 416.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.71 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 64c | 303.65$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.91 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 16c | 294.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 52c | 288.4$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.43 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Under | 52c | 278.73$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.79 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 69c | 252.26$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 61c | 250$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.22 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 46c | 239.68$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.63 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 41c | 236.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.04 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 230.86$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Over | 5c | 214.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 47c | 206$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Over | 36c | 205$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc4…5a94backed Under | 54c | 194.48$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 53c | 180$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Over | 7c | 153.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 14c | 146.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 80c | 134.22$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Over | 59c | 106.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Over | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 52c | 91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 34c | 83.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 53c | 79.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 20c | 77.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 70c | 71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Over | 21c | 67.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 52c | 65.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 38c | 61.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 48c | 61.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 38c | 50.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 49c | 47.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Under | 41c | 47.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 63c | 44.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 41c | 39.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…7b78backed Under | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a03…279abacked Under | 41c | 30.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Over | 61c | 25.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 64c | 20.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5this page
- San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.