Fifa International · resolved market
Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbae4a32672a76a758a24b3f7a9454778c05722d13ac78e57e2e968e7df61e845
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 0c | 54,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +8.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 12c | 1,261$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.52 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 29c | 919.48$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.59 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Under | 74c | 679.51$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.51 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -6.7wins | -0.24per pick | 59cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 25c | 498.72$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 72c | 373.59$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41e…f01fbacked Over | 26c | 372.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba7b…b949backed Over | 27c | 345$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…d142backed Under | 73c | 345$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 71c | 299.99$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 12c | 292.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 19c | 272.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 18c | 198.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b7…9cabbacked Under | 74c | 125.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e9b3backed Under | 74c | 124.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…4897backed Under | 74c | 122.66$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Over | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 71c | 96.73$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 136 | 43.4%59 W · 77 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 23c | 94.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Under | 77c | 90.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 78c | 81.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 78c | 77.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5434…0911backed Over | 21c | 73.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 23c | 62.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 467 | 43.3%202 W · 265 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 25c | 54.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662d…2f66backed Over | 27c | 50.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Under | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 154 | 48.1%74 W · 80 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf1…5776backed Under | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 407 | 36.6%149 W · 258 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…053ebacked Under | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under | 77c | 18.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed Under | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…bb30backed Under | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5this page
- Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5Under won
- Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.