World Politics · resolved market
Labour wins a majority of seats in UK election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb16299bea1f4e02a1b00ddf4478c581ba1c7df9aeab700c60a3daf5343caf64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $223,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 13c | 49,115$6,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,324.2 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 15c | 23,579$3,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,535.12 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…f52cbacked No | 14c | 17,962$2,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,514.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…c87cbacked No | 3c | 17,773$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.89 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…8cc7backed No | 1c | 11,523$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.97 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…cb67backed No | 4c | 4,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 13c | 4,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…e337backed No | 5c | 2,560$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 8c | 1,557$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.7 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 5c | 1,163$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 11c | 1,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.52 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…faafbacked No | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed No | 3c | 323.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…7538backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…b053backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac69…84f2backed No | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed No | 11c | 102.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.