South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb17790ae87235f0a56886882e289779964822ec2a6b065af1b32216f6f6e4c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 30c | 3,050$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 70c | 2,858$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.5 | 75 | 72%54 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 26c | 1,980$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.96 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 21c | 1,608$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.06 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…4ea6backed Yes | 31c | 1,258$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 1,194$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.39 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 42c | 964.29$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 69c | 699.26$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.08 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 69c | 573.34$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.74 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 28c | 570.85$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.6 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 18c | 558.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 14c | 409.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked No | 71c | 364$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 29c | 290$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed No | 70c | 264$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed No | 70c | 190$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 112.36$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed No | 70c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Yes | 29c | 95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked No | 71c | 92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Yes | 30c | 84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Yes | 30c | 84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Yes | 30c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Yes | 29c | 71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed Yes | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Yes | 30c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Yes | 30c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked No | 70c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…4fd0backed Yes | 27c | 40.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587f…1d4abacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…1233backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…3067backed No | 75c | 30.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…4e34backed No | 71c | 25.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 74c | 23.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d3…3d7abacked No | 74c | 20.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 72c | 14.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-16?this page
- Will CA River Plate win on 2025-11-16?No won
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA River Plate end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.