South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA River Plate win on 2025-11-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x451e55af70f0206803f5b2344bd72a53092ab5a03e8cd4bbf0993db49e948bd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 62c | 21,237$13,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,040.06 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 42c | 20,000$8,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,400 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 58c | 2,245$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.2 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed Yes | 30c | 719.93$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.98 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 44c | 641.93$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.74 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 40c | 548.56$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.14 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked No | 62c | 357.67$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.67 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…39a6backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked No | 62c | 251$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.38 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…4aeebacked No | 62c | 246.06$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked No | 60c | 246$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 240.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 41c | 209.03$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.79 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 35c | 171.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x487a…5040backed No | 58c | 150.56$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 28c | 144.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 42c | 138.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 404 | 42.1%170 W · 234 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 58c | 108.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Yes | 40c | 83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Yes | 40c | 81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ae…bbbabacked Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Yes | 41c | 79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…33debacked Yes | 44c | 78.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Yes | 42c | 69.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 76c | 64.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 41c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Yes | 40c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…8648backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce1…047fbacked Yes | 44c | 35.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA River Plate win on 2025-11-16?this page
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA River Plate end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-11-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.