Lol · resolved market
LoL: HMBLE vs Deacoy (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb20ac1d55d8159fcd12fed6f8b53e96345ec6abcf97d02d91f0c5fd2e0e3326
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HMBLEof HMBLE, Deacoy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed HMBLE | 72c | 34,777$25,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,680.46 | 403 | 70.2%283 W · 120 L | +31.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Deacoy | 29c | 14,133$4,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,093.69 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Deacoy | 22c | 6,679$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.61 | 771 | 31.8%245 W · 526 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Deacoy | 0c | 3,682$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed HMBLE | 77c | 3,372$2,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.58 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Deacoy | 40c | 2,887$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.04 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Deacoy | 22c | 2,168$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.77 | 460 | 33.9%156 W · 304 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Deacoy | 22c | 1,555$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.85 | 549 | 44.4%244 W · 305 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Deacoy | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Deacoy | 24c | 1,418$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.33 | 360 | 34.4%124 W · 236 L | -21.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Deacoy | 41c | 1,343$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.67 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…0ac1backed Deacoy | 23c | 1,300$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 505 | 47.7%241 W · 264 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Deacoy | 44c | 1,200$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.4 | 541 | 29.9%162 W · 379 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9f…787abacked HMBLE | 63c | 1,167$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.03 | 610 | 45.2%276 W · 334 L | +35.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Deacoy | 24c | 1,010$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Deacoy | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 447 | 51%228 W · 219 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Deacoy | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Deacoy | 3c | 977.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 358 | 50.8%182 W · 176 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Deacoy | 30c | 839$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.43 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Deacoy | 30c | 721.58$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 190 | 42.1%80 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Deacoy | 40c | 700$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 390 | 44.9%175 W · 215 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Deacoy | 30c | 640.37$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.8 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed Deacoy | 24c | 606.04$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.45 | 487 | 42.3%206 W · 281 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…eb94backed Deacoy | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed HMBLE | 56c | 500$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed HMBLE | 77c | 449.98$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 697 | 56.5%394 W · 303 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…e9bdbacked Deacoy | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Deacoy | 24c | 383.33$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked HMBLE | 63c | 367$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.39 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Deacoy | 21c | 364.94$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Deacoy | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 292 | 40.1%117 W · 175 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Deacoy | 23c | 280$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Deacoy | 22c | 277.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked Deacoy | 39c | 274.16$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 151 | 41.7%63 W · 88 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Deacoy | 22c | 272.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 808 | 32.9%266 W · 542 L | -43.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Deacoy | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…00bcbacked Deacoy | 25c | 230$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…ff7dbacked Deacoy | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 230 | 23%53 W · 177 L | -19.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…5092backed Deacoy | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Deacoy | 24c | 195.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 427 | 35.4%151 W · 276 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…564cbacked Deacoy | 23c | 175.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 363 | 31.1%113 W · 250 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…affbbacked Deacoy | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0150…0128backed Deacoy | 24c | 146.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked HMBLE | 77c | 145.66$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 850 | 46%391 W · 459 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked HMBLE | 79c | 135$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked HMBLE | 79c | 131.79$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…b398backed HMBLE | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Deacoy | 22c | 113.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…6437backed HMBLE | 80c | 100.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…03c5backed Deacoy | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +76%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed HMBLE | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 169 | 34.3%58 W · 111 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Deacoy | 19c | 89.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…9238backed HMBLE | 78c | 87.86$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Deacoy | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…77babacked Deacoy | 24c | 64.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked HMBLE | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Deacoy | 30c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c6…a5dcbacked Deacoy | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -78%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked HMBLE | 76c | 32.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed HMBLE | 79c | 26.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1,310 | 37.3%489 W · 821 L | -86.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…a17bbacked HMBLE | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e9…bba0backed HMBLE | 78c | 25.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7719…80b6backed HMBLE | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 77cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed HMBLE | 79c | 20.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 109 | 31.2%34 W · 75 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked HMBLE | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked HMBLE | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 171 | 32.2%55 W · 116 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed HMBLE | 78c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…ec8bbacked HMBLE | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.