Tennis · resolved market
Japan Women's Open: Elise Mertens vs Cristina Bucsa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb3d65e85878df2f011f5e4a1fab18108809b9c2bad08cd8ca45847ffe0673dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mertensof Mertens, Bucsa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mertens | 73c | 4,861$3,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.33 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Mertens | 68c | 3,900$2,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.88 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Bucsa | 31c | 1,800$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucsa | 32c | 1,416$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bucsa | 41c | 1,341$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.24 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Bucsa | 41c | 1,029$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.77 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mertens | 59c | 996.23$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.6 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Bucsa | 22c | 766.56$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Bucsa | 46c | 508.32$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Bucsa | 38c | 499.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bucsa | 32c | 364$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.48 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bucsa | 7c | 170.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Mertens | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Mertens | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Bucsa | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Bucsa | 32c | 146.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Mertens | 67c | 126.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Bucsa | 33c | 126.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Bucsa | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Bucsa | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Bucsa | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Mertens | 56c | 93.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Bucsa | 43c | 86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Bucsa | 34c | 84.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…423abacked Mertens | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Mertens | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Bucsa | 30c | 66.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Bucsa | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mertens | 64c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.