NHL · resolved market
Spread: Devils (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb3ea3032ecc22c6927ccac3eae3d7a6e6c4ebbf374961061c0e75c37b7d9cdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Devils, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Capitals | 72c | 390.33$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Devils | 28c | 239.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Capitals | 70c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Devils | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Devils | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Capitals | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Capitals | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Capitals | 69c | 91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Devils | 32c | 58.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Devils | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked Devils | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Devils | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Capitals | 69c | 34.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Capitals | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Capitals | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. DevilsCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Devils: O/U 5.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Devils: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.